Epic Drafting...Not an Entertaining Entry, but Potentially Useful

Really, maybe shouldn’t read this.  This is something that once it got into my head, it never got out…and has probably gotten me into a bit of trouble.

Here we’re talking about runs.  Draft runs specifically.  You know what I’m talking about.  Someone drafts a TE and suddenly everyone is drafting TEs.  QBs, TEs, Ks, and DEFs are, more often than not, drafted in these runs.  OK, I can’t prove that it happens “more often than not” but that’s why blogs are rad, right?  I don’t have to bother my fact checker.  Just spew whatever the hell I feel like and really, whatcha gonna do?  I can even pretend like I have a fact checker.  Anyway, I read an article about draft runs ages ago and, like I said, have thought about them ever since.

The point of the article, and something I agree with, is the idea that when these runs occur, there is value in being the initiator.  Picture this.  You take some RB that’s probably your #3 RB and the guy after you drafts a TE.  Then the next guy goes TE, and the so does the next guy.  The run is on and when the pick gets back to you, the top 6 or so TEs are gone.  Lame.  At this point, maybe you grab #7, maybe you resign yourself to having a crappy TE and grab something else.  Whatever.

Now picture that instead of taking that #3 RB you recognize that no one has taken TEs.  You see that the value of the RBs and WRs being taken is tanking.  So you grab that TE.  You start the run.  And everyone follows.  When the pick comes back, that #3 RB is still there because everyone’s been blowing picks on TEs.  Now you get your #3RB AND a top TE.  This is how you have a great draft.  This is how you dominate.

So how do you this?  Well, you track everyone’s picks by position, which you should do for enough reasons to fill ten blog entries.  And you gamble.  You try to predict when the runs are coming.  And it is a gamble.  What happens if you take that TE and no one picks a TE for another 2 rounds?  That’s a cardinal sin.  That’s the worst possible thing you can do in a draft.  Any player you pick that you could get in a later round is a wasted pick.  It’s lost value.  And the draft is, after all, all about value.  Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

I’ve have mixed results.  When predicting runs has worked, I have some of my best drafts.  When it doesn’t work, I just look stupid.  But I’m getting better at it.  One nuance that might help is to realize that in a lot of positions, the run doesn’t happen when the elite players are taken.  People don’t panic when Tom, Peyton, and Drew are off the board.  But when guys like Rivers, Romo, and Rodgers start to disappear…that’s when the run starts.  So who do you want, Rivers or the butt end of Manning clan?

Ultimately, most people have average drafts.  That’s why they’re average.  And if you find that you picked your most of your positions in the middle of when everyone else was picking those positions, then you likely had an average draft.  But look at the guy with the great draft.  He found value in all of his picks.  And that doesn’t happen by constantly following everyone else’s lead.

Runs in the draft.  Think about it.